There are vast and foolish screams echoing today.
President Trump ordered a reasonably significant Tomahawk missile strike on Syria, ostensibly in response to the highly publicized use of chemical weapons in Syria. The strikes were aimed at an air base in Syria, targeting the base infrastructure and associated assets. The anguished reaction from many is foolish.
The Left is screaming for war with Syria.
The Right is screaming that Trump is now a neocon.
Pundits wax wroth and everyone has a dramatic opinion.
Russia has “suspended cooperation” with the United States.
#SyriaStrikes tweets far and wide.
This is all very silly, driven by people who do not understand how this works, and who enjoy the useless process of outrage so deeply that they cannot focus, nor communicate, on the reality of the current situation.
Let us examine some considerations that exist prior to, and independent from, any assertions of chemical attack or moral outrage.
If you are able, focus yourself on these considerations.
Regime change requires military validation.
Any new ruler tests the readiness and capacity of his military forces. Not to do so is unforgivably irresponsible for two reasons. The first reason is that the ruler must have confidence that his war orders will be obeyed, and this requires validated proof.
Not promise or faith.
The second reason goes beyond obedience. The actual capacity of those forces to respond in a coherent manner must be validated. President Carter experienced failure in this realm. Upon assuming office, he was told that “Marine One is ready to transport you at a moment’s notice.” He reportedly responded with “Fine. Tell them to pick me up. NOW.”
The resulting chaos was unflattering to the Marines…
President Trump has a serious responsibility to know that an order of war is obeyed and successful. That is now achieved.
You do not like this?
“Violence and killing just to test capability is wrong,” shrieks the fool.
I tell you that the dark world does not care, and rulers who are unprepared fail.
Superpower military relations go deep.
The angst and shock and wailed complaints of doom and horror issuing from the multitudes are pointless.
Military ties between the United States and Russia are far deeper in nature than mere headlines in the fake news media. The Pentagon confirmed that Russia was notified of the strikes. Grasp well that this is not a mere phone call that surprises the other superpower.
“Hey dude, we’re gonna bomb those guys.”
That is not how it works.
Military ties between the United States and Russia go back generations. Understand that institutions build ties over time, and the relationships between senior staff officers in the United States and Russia go back many decades, in some cases familially, all the way back to the Second World War. Those ties are not restricted to the “hot line” between Moscow and Washington.
Consider what must be done to achieve this strike without entanglement of forces.
I am not a military planner. Therefore I say to you, I leave out many levels of consideration that were also taken into account:
- Alerting Russian forces to incoming strike timing and vectors to avoid force collision.
- Rerouting of Russian air patrols to prevent interference and damage.
- Downward notification of forces to prevent unplanned operational reaction.
- Acknowledgement of force reposition all the way back up the chain, and cross-confirmation on both sides.
- Alert to ground HUMINT resources that ripple effect will take place, and considerations for preservation.
- Coordination of public and political responses, agreed to beforehand.
All of this is very expensive, time consuming and deliberately executed with precision on both sides.
Russia has “suspended cooperation” with the United States?
That is no more serious than changing pajamas in the middle of the night.
I tell you that this was not alarming to Russia.
It was good practice.
There is great work ahead.
Just as the new ruler must validate his ability to wage war – our allies, with common interests, must validate the renewed capacities of the joint machine.
It was well done. Consider this, and avoid the howls and wails of the ignorant.
Watch the next few years. Time is important, for it plays games.
If you want to master time, read my book.
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